美国需求端产业结构的变化及对中国的启示

对产业结构演化的研究都是从供给端计算的产业结构，本文构造了从需求端计算的产业结构并依此对美国需求端产业结构的演化进行了实证分析。研究表明，当年价所计算的美国需求端三次产业结构的变化小于供给端产业结构的变化；1970年以来美国第二产业的变化差异中近40%可以用外贸因素来解释。进而本文采取不变价计算了美国产业结构的变化，研究表明，自1970年以来按不变价计算的美国需求端的产业结构变化很小，且美国第三产业比例提升中有31%可以用不同产业价格因素变化来解释，44%可以用国际贸易来解释，仅有25%可以用第三产业收入弹性的变化来解释，因而收入弹性不是美国第三产业比例提升的重要原因。美国能够维持经常账户的逆差，将第三产业作为动力产业的根本原因在于美元的霸权地位。相比较而言，中国一直以来处于国际收支“双顺差”的状态，中国的具体国情和国家实力均无法满足大规模输出人民币使之成为其他国家储备货币的条件。     

The development trinity: How regional integration impacts growth,inequality and poverty

Developing countries today have become more active participants in regional trade agreements. This raises questions about how the benefits of integration are distributed, and the extent to which lower‐income countries are able to capture development gains. Historically, such impacts have been difficult to identify with precision. This paper seeks to address this gap by empirically analysing the impact of regional integration on development, particularly the effects on growth and welfare. Using both bilateral and regional integration measures, we show that the ability to capture gains from integration varies across developing country regional groups, with developing Asia benefiting on par with developed countries. The findings in the paper indicate that trade and trade policy play an important role in reducing inequality and poverty in developing countries. It also shows that regionalism can function as a channel to make multilateralism a more adept way of addressing national challenges.     

Country asymmetry,trade agreements,and transfers

Using a standard 2 × 2 trade agreement model, I show that the welfare effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) depend on the asymmetry on supply and demand functions. When countries are sufficiently asymmetric with respect to the size or the demand functions, the small country tends to be better off, while the large country is worse off. Thus, the small country must compensate the large country for the FTA to be incentive‐compatible. However, in the presence of sufficient asymmetry in the supply functions, the small country is worse off, while the bigger is better off. In this case, the transfer must flow from the large to the small country. This last finding helps explain why some FTAs between rich and poor countries provide for adjustment transfers to the latter.     

Forecasting upon a star: Forecasting or wishful thinking?

The purpose of this paper was to perform a detailed analysis of the challenges faced while developing and using econometric models to forecast future transportation demand. To this end, a comparative analysis of the state of practice and state of the art was undertaken on a concrete example – Viracopos Airport in Brazil. A review of relevant technical and scientific literature identified a number of approaches and each representative example was synthesized into a specification “template”. We then compared the performance of each “template” with the observed demand, through an intra-series forecast. A general finding was that econometric model specifications proved to be somewhat homogenous and simpler in nature, with results indicating a relatively small difference in fit and forecast capability across models. Even with the elimination of what is typically considered the main culprit for deviations – the forecast uncertainty of the explanatory (input) variables – the forecast is still subject to sizeable deviation. To address this issue, we proposed developing some sanity check indexes, particularly relevant for long-term forecasts. We conclude that the challenges faced at the Viracopos Airport Concession were far from econometric ones, that the success of the demand forecast and the concession itself required more than a well estimated econometric model. Finally, regarding investment obligations within the concession agreement, we strongly recommend making them conditional to meeting demand milestones, given the inherent unpredictability in forecasts.     

Multilateral trade liberalisation helps promote export product diversification: Trade tensions damage the prospects of the poorest economies

Using a large panel dataset over a 20‐year period, this article explores the effect of multilateral trade liberalisation on export product diversification. Empirical results show that multilateral trade liberalisation is positively associated with export product diversification. However, less‐developed economies experience a greater positive effect than relatively advanced economies. This analysis suggests that if trade tensions reduce cooperation on trade matters among World Trade Organization members, it may hinder export product diversification in developing countries, and the poorest countries might be the most adversely affected.     

Copper trade and production of copper,brass and bronze goods in the Oldenburg monarchy: copperworks and copper users in the eighteenth century

This paper explores trade connections – or the lack of such – between copperworks and copper processing plants in the Oldenburg Monarchy in the eighteenth century. Domestic customs areas, high tariffs on raw material export and import bans sought to encourage domestic copper and brass goods production of Norwegian copper raw material, however this was only realised halfway. The raw material from Norway was largely exported, and copper and brass materials used to produce copper-, brass and bronze goods were imported from all over the world. The copperworks and processing plants in the Monarchy never became strongly integrated due to several reasons. First, shareholders of copperworks acquired favourable credit deals abroad, and preferred to export the copper, and second, copper materials had different features and processing plants used all sorts of copper inputs in the making of goods, not only copper raw material. Norway produced mostly gar copper, so copper plants and coppersmiths had to turn elsewhere for other types of copper. Production of copper and brass goods increased, but did not meet the domestic demand partly due to a strong foreign competition. The optimal goal of ‘mercantilist theory’ regarding copper and brass import substitution was not reached.     

Factor Heterogeneity,Factor Market Imperfection and Trade

This paper develops a tractable model of examining how factor heterogeneity and imperfect factor market interact for determining a pattern of trade. Institution plays a crucial role for the interaction. In my work, firm productivity is defined as a composition of factor productivity and technology. Thus, input selection should affect the pattern of Melitz’s intra-industry allocation due to the incurring transaction cost. For a simple model, I assume two factors (labor and capital) and two sectors, which are relatively less institution-dependent and relatively more institution-dependent. When the economy is open, effect of the transaction cost on income distribution is more drastic for an institutionally underdeveloped country. Depending on institutional quality, the economic openness reallocates resource across countries through job creation or job destruction. The job turnovers redistribute income between heterogeneous labors within countries. The income redistribution is catalyzed by international mobility of capital. As a result, income disparity is widened between the institutionally developed country and the institutionally underdeveloped country. This paper can contribute to the literature of institution and international trade.     

The prospect of decent work,decent industrial relations and decent social relations in China: towards a multi-level and multi-disciplinary approach

Abstract

Decent Work is a key initiative launched by the International Labour Organization in 1999. The initiative is to promote decent and productive employment with decent conditions of freedom, equality, security and human dignity. In reviewing academic literature on decent work, existing studies have been conducted primarily from a legal and political economic perspective. It is also largely situated outside any national industrial relations framework, both theoretically and practically. Decent work is an advocacy initiative of ILO, but the promotion of universal values embodied in the notion (e.g. equality, fairness, justice and dignity) needs to be tailored to specific societal contexts. Drawing on existing academic literature, this review article examines ideological, institutional and cultural distances between decent work and the reality of employment in China. It argues that achieving decent work requires an ideological transition of ‘traditional’ Chinese work ethics and a cultural transition from collectivism and altruism towards individualism and an emphasis on individual rights. This study also examines and highlights regulatory enforcement deficits and the inadequate role of the trade union in facilitating the advancement of decent work at various levels. Finally, the article argues that the study of decent work should be mainstreamed as an integral part of decent industrial relations and ultimately, decent social relations. It calls for a multi-level and multi-disciplinary approach to examining the historical, political, economic, ideological and cultural context of specific countries in fulfilling the ‘Decent Work’ agenda.     

Markups of Exporters and Importers: Evidence from Hungary

In this paper, we study the relationship between different proxies of firm‐level markups and trade status, using balance sheet information linked to detailed trade data from Hungary between 1995 and 2003. We find that importing is strongly positively correlated with markup measures, both across and within firms. We argue that this correlation can reflect three channels: self‐selection, higher physical productivity resulting from access to a larger variety of inputs, and quality upgrading based on high‐quality imported intermediate inputs. We present evidence for the relevance of the third channel by showing that importers’ markup premium is higher when inputs arrive from developed countries, and that importing is correlated with higher‐quality (price‐adjusted revenue) exports. We find no robust evidence for exporter premium when controlling for importing. We argue that the non‐existent exporter premium might result from the stronger competition in export markets relative to domestic markets.     

全球价值链下中国增加值贸易的核算及网络特征研究

基于投入产出模型和社会网络分析，利用世界投入产出表相关数据，对2000—2014年中国的增加值贸易进行核算，并分析全球增加值贸易的网络特征。研究结果显示：（1）从出口目的地来看，中国向美国、日本、德国等国家的增加值出口较大；（2）从行业来看，中国的纺织业、除汽车和摩托车之外的其他产品批发业、采矿业等行业的增加值出口较大；（3）根据网络密度的计算结果，世界范围的各国（地区）贸易联系程度在增强；（4）中国的相对点度数和点强度有上升的趋势，而日本和美国有下降的趋势，说明中国在世界增加值贸易格局中的地位在提升，不过美国仍在世界增加值贸易格局中占据主导地位；（5）核心边缘分析结果表明核心国家（地区）的数目经历了先增加后减少的过程，边缘国家（地区）数目则先减少后增加。其中，中国的核心度一直在增加，日本和美国的核心度呈现下降的趋势。因此，为了扩大增加值贸易，增强国际贸易的话语权，中国政府有必要采取调整进出口税率等政策，并重视与美国等国家的双边贸易合作，以实现双赢的结果。